Crypto Rotation Model

In a previous post I published results of an analysis I performed on oversold technical oscillators.  I ran this test on the historical data for the stocks in the Dow 30, S&P 100, and Nasdaq 100 (corrected for survivorship bias).  I computed an Indicator Edge Factor by first calculating the average 5-day percentage return of the entire data universe.  I then determined the average 5-day profit on the days where the technical indicator was in oversold territory.  Dividing the overall market return into the oversold return yielded the Indicator Edge Factor.  As you can see in my original results, the RSI oscillator outperformed the other indicators, providing a remarkable edge in the neighborhood of 10 to 1.

Creating an Analysis Tool

One of the responders on my LinkedIn post wondered what the results would look like if I ran this analysis on cryptocurrency data.  I realized that the ability to analyze technical indicators on a variety of markets had some value, so I decided to build a tool in the Quantacula Studio modeling platform to realize this.

The Indicator Edge Analyzer runs a massive analysis of all of the indicators installed in the platform, on whatever data universe you select.  There are numerous options you can configure, and a stage two analysis that lets you do a deep dive into the profile and performance of a single indicator.  If you'd like to learn more about the Indicator Edge Analyzer, check here.

Results on Cryptocurrencies

I created a universe of crypto historical data in Quantacula Studio using the free Cryptocompare historical data source extension.  I added the top crypto symbols to the universe, fired up the Analyzer, and clicked the button.  The results are shown below.  It turns out that the RSI wins the oscillator contest even in the crypto markets!

We're again analyzing the average percentage return after 5 bars, with a period of 20 for the indicators.  These options can be easily configured in the Analyzer to suit your tastes.  Buying the crypto market when then RSI was oversold resulted in an average 5 day return of 19.05%, and an Edge Factor of 3.64.  The second closest oscillator was Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO, and another one of my long time favorites) at 2.30.

Crypto Rotation Model

A strategy that balances a fully invested portfolio of cryptos based on RSI does extremely well.  I quickly mocked up a new Rotation Model in Quantacula Studio that buys the 3 cryptos that have the lowest RSI(20), rebalancing daily.  The results consistently outperformed holding a single crypto such as Bitcoin.  Here is the equity curve of this model backtested for the past 1 year.  The Crypto Rotation model outperformed Bitcoin "Buy and Hold", even considering it got caught with a position in BitConnect Coin (BCCOIN) that lost 99% of its value!